The Realist in You

March 4th, 2008

“Objectivism subscribes to the thesis of empiricism: that sense perception is our basic form of contact with reality, and that all knowledge rests on perceptual evidence. The Objectivist viewpoint on perception, however, is unique in a number of respects. The most important is its rejection of the representationalist view that we perceive external objects indirectly, through the medium of images or representations internal to consciousness. The representationalist view, which dominated modern philosophy and is still commonly accepted, arose from the fact that the appearance of an object is partly dependent on the nature and operations of our sensory systems.” link to quote - The Atlas Society (page on epistomology)

Much like the cognitive problem of resolving the sight seen to symbols instead of actually observing the detail of a thing, a view which relies upon a pre-cast representation admits errors. For example, seeing a butterfly briefly, without capturing the differences in the shapes of the color patterns on its (two) wings can still lead you to a pretty drawing (by relying on the internal symbolic image - however derived) but that drawing will not truly represent that butterfly.

Here’s a link to an article that provides an example of a symbol or representation interposed between the facts (the speeches made and to be made by the candidates) and the listeners’ (readers’) understanding of the facts.

By allowing the representation to substitute for some details, the listener is brought to a position of deciding the issue on a false premise. The false premise is created by the illusion of ’straight talk’ or ‘experience’ or ‘change’. These phrases are meaningless. To accept them as if they were the substance that they are claimed to be, is to be made the fool.

Money to Burn, part 3: Heisenbug

February 27th, 2008

The term ‘Heisenbug’ is a sort of inside joke with software engineers. It refers to a difficult problem, which, as it is investigated, appears to change.

The reason this happens is that the means of observing the problem itself is interacting with the machine/software, and each time you change your view or the information you collect (or the way you collect it), the particular symptoms of the problem change.

The reference to Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle is beyond the scope of this piece.

How does this concept apply to money and investment or savings?

For most of us, the entire subject of money is always discussed in uncertain terms and reference to exotic terms, rather than objective and constant terms.

Beginning with the word itself: what is money, and why is it worth so much less today than it was worth just a few years ago? Money is a recognized medium of exchange. It is defined by the constitution of the United States as something whose value and standards are regulated by the Congress. It’s the fourth power or duty of congress listed here.

We all know that the money we use today is not regulated or predictably valuable and that the government, or some entity acting with the authority (and not the responsibility) of the government changes the value and quantity of it. It is painfully obvious that this report is a consequence of the failure of the Congress to do that.

What is the mystery here? Why, if the Congress has authorized and supervises this entity (the Federal Reserve), do we not have control of the money supply and its value?

It seems that we are the failed part here. We have all the information we need to ‘deal with’ the ever-changing money. The price of goods that we buy frequently should indicate to us the rate of change and the direction (and that part seems to be pretty easy because it always goes in the same direction). The Nightly Business Report tells us which stocks and mutual funds are up and which are down. Larry Kudlow and Jim Kramer tell us how much more ‘liquidity’ is needed to make their deals worth more. The myriad talking heads constitute a continuous stream of ‘financial data’ available to us. And that doesn’t even begin to measure up to the tools, streamers, historical analysis and other presentations available at your trading web site.

Ah, there’s the rub. Who has time to even manage all the tools and info that is available, and seemingly required, to even begin to understand the money picture?

And the sixty-four thousand dollar question: why should you have to become an expert on all this esoteric babble just to know what your paycheck is worth? And the second question: if you do, will you really be able to make it work for you?

I submit these answers: you should not need to dedicate a significant portion of your life to understanding something that is guaranteed by the constitution to be ‘regulated’ (constant or knowable). And to the second, it has been my experience and that of many others who I know that the vast majority of us will fail to become sufficiently expert to overcome the uncertainty (for us) of the markets.

But do we really have any reliable information about finance and money? Here is a frequently-cited calculation (cpi) from the BLS. (select the year 1997 to start, use $100 to make the result obvious…) This is what you find by looking at historical data: a piece of chicken is as good an indicator (let’s not even mention fuel or electricity etc.) over the same time period has gone from this to this. A contradiction seems to exist. 30% is not 170%. Note - the comparison is not exact for any of the items, but a rigorous mathematical analysis is not necessary to reveal the deception that is foisted on us by the acceptance of the CPI.

Do you think that your financial advisers and consultants are provided with better information than the CPI? I have found that in some of their sales literature, they rely on the CPI as a measure of the success of their funds and averages. Does this mean they are liars? I wouldn’t go so far as to say that. They may just be more gullible than the average man who can read a menu. But whether they are fools, liars, or a combination of the two, is their advice trustworthy?

* apologies for the unkindness of expression above. *

So, aside from the fact that the information with which we are bombarded daily, (all relevant to the safety and security of our children’s education, our retirement funds, our budget for future medical needs etc.), is confused and based on (literal) fraud and obfuscation, did you you enjoy the play Ms. Lincoln?

Heisenbug - humbug!

Money to Burn, part 2

February 14th, 2008

We are desensitized to the faults and failures of money through daily exposure. What has become the norm is like an existentialist play. Every time you enter the room, its dimensions appear different. At first, you think that you have arrived at the wrong place, but it is the right place and it is continuously changing. That, unlike the physical world wherein you can measure the room, in this world, there is no standard measure of length. What may be a tall and wide doorway today could be a mousehole tomorrow, or become a slot on the surface of a sphere which rolls around as you attempt to get a grip on it.

But you become accustomed to it, adapt to the fact that you can never know what money’s value is. It’s as if the definition changes randomly and you are regularly confronted with a new meaning. After being surprised a few times, you accept the pattern of your inability to know. This is very destructive.

Yet, we accept that, because we do not believe (any longer) that it is within our power to correct it. This is worse than not having control of your government. This is being deprived of a reasonable and logical framework in which to conduct you daily business (your life). This is liek being governed by the characters in ‘Alice in Wonderland’. I hope the Queen of Hearts wants the US Dollar to be worth a bowl of soup today :)

Nothing could be more destructive of a free people than to deny them the ability to know the facts of their own daily lives. Yet, this has to have been accepted for a long period of time.

The value of money seems not to interest the Congress at all. When they ‘interrogate’ the chairman of the Federal Reserve, they ask advice about taxes and benefits they wish to bestow upon their constituents. this is just sleazy vote-buying anyway, so one could ask, why would you expect the congress to explore the details fo the working of the Federal Reserve? Well, there are a couple of reasons: first, it is the responsibility of Congress to regulate the value of money. (see US Constitution Article 1, section 8). Secondly, there are constitutional limits on the purposes for which they may spend ‘our’ money. If they care about that, they need to actually know what money is and how much they have before they can go out to buy those votes - which is also patently unconstitutional.

But, at the heart of the problem is the acceptance of the American people - of the illegal and immoral acts of congress and their complete and utter failure to even attempt to account for the money of the united States.

Here is an example of how a word can change meaning and become accepted. Some time ago the word ‘red’ was commonly used to denote communism. (Example ‘Red China’) In the past few years, somhow it has come to mean ‘republican’.

Now, you would think, from their rhetoric, that republicans would not accept that labeling. (red state/blue state) At least they should have insisted that it be applied in reverse, labeling the democrats (who they always claimed to have been communist-like or sympathetic to communists). But no, they gladly wear the ‘red’ label now (listen to any of dozens of right-wing radio hosts…).

This has had the insidious affect of associating republicans with the practices and philosphy of communism. That must hurt!

But, just as they have accepted the label red, the rest of us have accepted the fact of unknowable (and constantly decreasing) value for the ‘dollar’.

So now, we must square the fact of our impotence to regain control over the measurement of value (money and currency) with the notion of being a free people, self-governing - or at least representatively governed by people of our own choice.How could it be that we choose people who do nothing of the kind?

baaaaaa…

Interestingly, more people are investors today than ever, as a fraction of the whole population. The behavior of investors is very sheep like in some respects. Since I have been paying attention (admittedly a fairly long time now), there have been at least 3 instances of a major ‘market occurrence’ wherein a significant fraction of the wealth of most investors (mutual funs is the most common vehicle of retirement investing) has vaporized - disappeared due to a crash or correction or readjustment because of a major failure - such as the S&L failure. Yet optimism always returns to those who have been ‘robbed’ - not their money but their optimism.

Do you suppose that anyone has studied the psychology of investors and learned how to sell to them based on scientific knowledge? Or do you think that old fashioned ’salesmanship’ is all that is required to keep people pledging and allocating into a constantly ‘growing’ (in terms of constantly-decreasing value of dollars) market?

Here is an interesting article on this subject. In it, the

‘Computational neuroscientists would add that not only do the projects appear profitable on paper but also that dopamine is released into the brains of entrepreneurs as they anticipate future profits.’
describes how a physiological effect is known to play within an investor when he is told of a trend of gain and potential. It’s odd, but no matter what the news is, bad or good, the financial shows I watch every morning always emphasize the potential gains for investors. It seems overall that it would have to be dishonest to do that consistently when there are good periods and bad periods for individuals in these markets - it just seems that way to me.

Money to Burn, part 1

February 11th, 2008

The pain of having to rely on money that is constantly changing (decreasing) in value is more serious than the difference between a gourmet dinner and fast food.

We, who labor for pay, have been cheated. The fact is that none of us living today have ever known a sound and stable ‘dollar’. The reason that our money is failing is, according to the Austrian Economists (economists of the Austrian school)

The dollar’s value at any time is negotiable. For a look at the history of the value (relative) of a USD, scroll down at this page to the section entitled ‘Time-relative Value”.

If our money (currency) is the standard of value, then it should not change or fluctuate at all. Otherwise, it is not constant, which is the essential function and purpose of a standard (a measuring stick). At the very least, if it is allowed to fluctuate, then over time, it should always return to its center or standard value.

But that is not what we have. What is worse is that most of us can’t even determine the value anymore. We need financial analysts and experts money handlers to help us to determine how much and of what ‘instruments’ we need to obtain in order to have a secure retirement. That alone is a telling feature of the money system, the fact of its vague and unpredictable values.

But isn’t there a way to overcome the ‘flexibility’? Sure there is, if you are rich, then you can deal with it in several ways.

Why should it matter that the founders have explicitly named the congress as teh body responsible for regulating the value of the money? See the section ‘Powers Granted to Congress’

How does this square with the fact of today’s administration (regulation) of money?

From a constitution site, on money <this site is not strictly about money, constitutional issues etc. but the pages on constitutional money are worth reading>:

“Any paper Money, which is not backed by something with intrinsic value, is always subject to becoming worthless once those using it begin to lose confidence in itThis was the case in the American colonies before and immediately after the American Revolution. It is also the reason that the Constitution of the resulting nation went to significant lengths to establish a national currency which was backed by tangible assets.It is also the gist of those Jeffersonian Concerns which dealt with the dangers of a Central Bank (as in The Federal Reserve), and the incompatibility of being free and in debt.”

The Congress does not regularly (or ever) review the books and accounts at the Federal Reserve. In that respect, the FR is an independent entity. If what it does (create and control the money supply) is actually the responsibility of Congress, one would think that Congress would inspect the books, formally and officially - at least once in a while - at least to ‘keep up appearances’.

Perhaps Roger Clemens’ blood chemistry is a more pressing issue than the integrity of the money of the nation. Yes, of course, if we can only get that right…

(speaking of the chairman of the Federal Reserve…)
“He’s going to print money until we run out of trees.”
Jim Rodgers

A is A

August 26th, 2007

posted by RichYankee.